I love this quote from A Beautiful Mind

"That is the nightmare of some mental illnesses: not knowing what's true. Imagine if you suddenly learned that the people, the places, and the moments, are most importantly not gone, not dead, but worse -- had never been. What kind of hell would that be?"

seems it's always been "within 10 yrs". Ten years goes by hella fast. I agree, we are a long time out waiting for the all elusive "answer". In the meantime, I sit and ponder why a psych I know is not there this week. That's why I asked John about the cell research , I think I read that in 2002 and now it isn't hip.
Always a new twist and popular drug too. Leaves hope lingering in the air doesn't it?

Hi, Phil. Love your blog. Re 10 years out, the only thing holding us back is our screwed up health system, not the science. We already can do gene scans, and genotyping kits are on the market.

Off the top of my head, we already know that some 30 percent of the population have a variation in the serotonin transporter gene (known as the short allele), and that this variation results in a heightened response in the amygdala in the limbic system. We also know, according to a major study, that individuals with the short allele are prone to stress-induced depression while those with the long allele display resilience. Various pathways are being mapped out from the amygdala to the prefrontal cortex and back again.

So here's the deal: We already have the technology. You can find out if you have this short allele right now simply by getting your blood drawn. The catch is getting your finger pricked will set you back several thousand. The other catch is your psychiatrist probably wouldn't know what to do with the information.

Now we know mood is way more complicated than one gene, but there will be several more in play in the next few years. Some of these were discussed at the APA annual meeting.

Ten years from now, the bean counters should decide its more cost effective for patients to get gene scans so they can get on the right treatments first time around rather than playing pill roulette for years. After all, you only need one gene scan - your genes don't change.

But never underestimate the ability of the people in charge to screw things up. Maybe we should all be thinking about moving to Canada.

John,
"But never underestimate the ability of the people in charge to screw things up."
I just totally agree with this statement.